CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-10-23T16:38:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2025 Oct 25 1231 UTC
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SIDC URSIGRAM 51025
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Oct 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 043

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with several C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C1.6 flare (SIDC Flare 5872), peaking at 10:23 UTC on October 25, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 653 (NOAA Active Region 4267; magnetic type alpha). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. SIDC Sunspot Group 653 (NOAA Active Region 4267) was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours, together with SIDC Sunspot Group 672 (NOAA Active Region 4256). SIDC Sunspot Group 607 (NOAA Active Region 4254; magnetic type alpha) is approaching the west limb. A new region emerged and was numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 683 (magnetic type beta) near S12E51, but remained quiet. The remaining active regions are relatively simple (magnetic type alpha or
beta) and did not produce any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: The faint coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 586) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery, starting at 14:36 UTC on October 23 and first reported yesterday. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a mild glancing blow could be possible on October 27. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Coronal holes: A large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 134) reached the central meridian at around 12:00 UTC today.
An associated high-speed stream may affect the solar wind environment near Earth from late October 27.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of a high-speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed decreased from 580 to 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained weak, below 6 nT, and its southward component fluctuated between
-6 nT and 6 nT. A gradual transition to slow solar wind conditions is expected over the next few days, with a chance of a weak enhancement from October 27 due to the possible glancing blow from SIDC CME 586 and the arrival of a high-speed stream from a large positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 134).

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels globally (NOAA Kp = 4) between 03:00 and 06:00 UTC on October 25 and locally over Belgium (K-Bel = 4) at around 18:00 UTC on October 24, due to mild HSS influence.
Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. On October 27-28, geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active and minor storm levels, with a chance of isolated moderate storm periods due to the expected HSS and a possible glancing blow from SIDC CME 586.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the
10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 099, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 24 Oct 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 105
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 134
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 020
AK WINGST              : 012
ESTIMATED AP           : 012
ESTIMATED ISN          : 098, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END

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